50 hryvnias per dollar, new price increase and economic challenges: Andriy Novak told what Ukrainians can expect in 2027

Will the dollar exchange rate cross the psychological mark of 50 hryvnias, what economic risks threaten Ukraine in 2027, and should we prepare for a new price jump? Economist Andriy Novak told this in an exclusive commentary for Femida.ua. According to him, the main factor that will determine the country’s economic future remains the war. At the same time, the expert sees no reason to panic over the exchange rate.

Will the dollar be 50 hryvnias in 2027?

One of the main issues that worries Ukrainians on the eve of the new year is the possible further depreciation of the hryvnia. However, Andriy Novak believes that predicting the exchange rate in conditions of a full-scale war is extremely difficult.

According to him, the main guideline remains the indicators laid down in the draft state budget for 2027.

“For next year, the draft budget, which was adopted in the first reading, includes the so-called average annual rate of 47.1 hryvnias per US dollar. And by the end of 2027, the rate is forecast to be slightly more than 48 hryvnias per dollar,” the economist noted.

At the same time, the expert drew attention to the fact that in previous years, the actual hryvnia exchange rate was mostly better than the budget forecasts. This is explained by the fact that the government usually sets a more pessimistic scenario in order to avoid financial risks.

“Based on the experience of previous years, we can expect the rate to be somewhere around 47, possibly 47.5 hryvnias per dollar,” Novak suggested.

However, he emphasized that this forecast is conditional, since the currency market is influenced by several unpredictable factors at once: the further course of the war, the volume of international financial assistance, and the situation with the naval blockade, which limits Ukrainian exports and foreign exchange revenues.

The biggest threat to the economy is not inflation or budget deficit

Speaking about the main economic challenges of 2027, Andriy Novak emphasized that the biggest danger is associated not so much with financial indicators as with the continuation of hostilities.

“Today, the biggest risks not only for the Ukrainian economy, but for Ukraine as a state and for all of us, Ukrainians, are the nature of the continuation of the war. The nature of the continuation of the war and the duration of the continuation of the war,” he explained.

The economist emphasized that Russian attacks on energy facilities, bridges, enterprises, warehouses and other critical infrastructure are causing huge economic losses to Ukraine.

It is the intensity of such attacks and the duration of the war, in his assessment, that will have the greatest impact on the economic situation next year.

At the same time, Novak believes that international financial support for Ukraine will remain relatively predictable. According to him, the partners have already provided certain amounts of assistance, so the main risk may be temporary delays in the receipt of funds.

Ukrainian business is advised not to close even in the most difficult conditions

The economist paid special attention to the situation of Ukrainian business, which continues to operate in conditions of war, constant shelling and economic uncertainty.

In his opinion, entrepreneurs should make maximum efforts to preserve their activities.

“With all your strength, from all options, look for all methods and ways, but only to survive and not close. Because further, if you close, you have the goal of continuing to work in Ukraine, then it will be much more difficult for you to reopen and regain your place in the market,” Novak emphasized.

Thus, the main task for entrepreneurs in the near future is to preserve the business and their positions in the market.

Is Ukraine threatened by a new global financial crisis?

Another issue that causes concern is the possibility of a global economic crisis in 2027.

However, Andriy Novak is convinced that its impact on Ukraine will be much smaller compared to the consequences of a full-scale war.

“Today, I think that Ukraine is no longer afraid of any global financial crisis. Firstly, we have already gone through it several times, and secondly, we are now in a much more severe crisis. And this crisis is called war,” the economist noted.

According to him, Ukraine has been living in conditions of an extremely large-scale economic shock for a long time, so additional external crisis phenomena will have a relatively limited impact.

At the same time, the expert does not rule out the emergence of new global economic problems, in particular due to the situation in the Middle East.

Products, fuel and utilities: should we expect a new price jump?

The issue of rising prices for goods and services remains one of the most painful for Ukrainian families.

However, Andriy Novak warns against categorical forecasts regarding prices for 2027.

According to him, the situation will depend on both domestic and international factors.

In particular, the cost of fuel will be affected by world oil prices, which largely depend on the development of events around Iran and the situation with the Strait of Hormuz.

“Can we predict this? We absolutely cannot,” the expert emphasized.

In addition, pricing in Ukraine will continue to be influenced by the war, its intensity and possible consequences for the economy.

Thus, Novak does not name specific indicators of a possible increase in the price of goods