Business in Ukraine worsened economic forecasts: NBU published expectations for the dollar, euro and inflation

Ukrainian enterprises have become more cautious in assessing the prospects for economic development for the coming year. Businesses expect a reduction in production volumes, a worsening financial situation, and a further shortage of workers. At the same time, companies predict an average dollar exchange rate of UAH 46.90 and a euro exchange rate of UAH 54.85 over the next 12 months.

This was reported by UAprom, citing the results of a survey by the National Bank of Ukraine for the third quarter of 2026.

According to the regulator, the business expectations index of enterprises decreased to 100.8% compared to 107% in the previous quarter.

This indicator indicates that Ukrainian businesses generally maintain expectations of a slight increase in business activity, but the level of optimism has significantly decreased.

What will be the dollar and euro exchange rate: business forecasts

In the third quarter, enterprises slightly worsened their exchange rate expectations for the national currency.

According to the results of the NBU survey, the average expected exchange rate over the next 12 months is:

US dollar — UAH 46.90, while in the second quarter businesses predicted UAH 46.12.

Euro — UAH 54.85, compared to the previous forecast of UAH 54.42.

Thus, businesses expect a gradual weakening of the hryvnia against major foreign currencies.

At the same time, the indicated indicators are estimates of business representatives, and not the official forecast of the National Bank or the established future exchange rate.

What will inflation be in 2027

The inflation expectations of Ukrainian businesses have hardly changed.

Businesses predict that over the next 12 months annual inflation will be 11.5%.

For comparison, in the second quarter this indicator was 11.6%.

Entrepreneurs call the war and its economic consequences the biggest factor in price increases.

In particular, 85.5% of surveyed enterprises consider military operations to be the main factor of inflationary pressure. This is 4.9 percentage points more than in the previous survey.

Among other factors that may affect price growth, businesses name exchange rate fluctuations and increased production costs.

Enterprises expect a reduction in production

Ukrainian companies have worsened their estimates of future production volumes of goods and services.

The balance of responses regarding production for the next 12 months was minus 11.9% compared to minus 7.6% in the second quarter.

This indicates an increase in negative expectations of enterprises regarding production activity.

At the same time, in 11 regions of Ukraine, businesses maintain positive expectations regarding overall business activity.

Entrepreneurs also demonstrate some optimism regarding future investments in machinery, equipment, inventory, and construction work.

The shortage of workers remains a serious problem

Among the main obstacles to economic development, enterprises name the consequences of a full-scale war and the lack of qualified personnel.

According to the survey results, businesses have worsened their forecasts for the future number of employees.

This means that enterprises in general do not expect a significant increase in staff over the next year.

The lack of specialists remains one of the factors limiting the ability of companies to increase production and expand their activities.

Which industries are most pessimistic about the future

According to the NBU, the most restrained economic expectations are held by heads of enterprises in the following industries:

Extractive industry.

Trade.

Transport.

Communication.

By enterprise size, the most cautious assessments are demonstrated by representatives of small and large businesses.

At the same time, enterprises that carry out exclusively export operations have relatively better expectations compared to other categories of respondents.

How do businesses assess their own financial condition

Enterprises also reported a deterioration in assessments of the current financial and economic situation.

The balance of responses regarding the current state of companies was minus 7%, while in the previous quarter it was minus 5.1%.

Regarding the prospects for the next 12 months, the indicator deteriorated to minus 4.3% compared to minus 2.4% in the second quarter.

Thus, the results of the NBU survey indicate a decrease in economic optimism among Ukrainian businesses.

Despite maintaining expectations of a slight increase in overall business activity, enterprises predict difficult working conditions due to the war, personnel shortages, production costs and currency risks.

It is worth noting that the above indicators reflect the expectations of enterprises at the time of the survey, and not the actual results of the economy or guaranteed changes in prices and exchange rates.