CIA Director Could Have Given Kremlin Tough Assessment of Russia’s War Situation — NYT

CIA Director John Ratcliffe, during his visit to Moscow, could have conveyed to the Russian leadership the US assessment of the real situation of the Russian Federation in the war against Ukraine. The main signal was that, against the backdrop of military losses and economic difficulties, the Kremlin should move on to serious negotiations to end the war before the situation for Russia becomes even worse.

This was reported by The New York Times, citing current and former American officials.

During his trip to Moscow, Ratcliffe met with FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov. This was their first personal meeting, although they had previously been in contact, in particular regarding the exchange of prisoners of war.

The CIA admits that Putin is not being told the whole truth

According to the NYT, there are fears in American intelligence that Vladimir Putin may not receive complete and reliable information from his entourage about the situation on the front, the losses of the Russian army and the real state of the Russian Federation.

That is why contact at the level of heads of special services in Washington could be considered as an additional channel for conveying the Kremlin’s assessment of the situation.

According to the publication’s interlocutors, Ratcliffe made it clear to Bortnikov: given Russia’s military and economic difficulties, Moscow should agree to serious negotiations to end the war.

At the same time, according to the NYT, the CIA director did not threaten the Kremlin or put forward any ultimatums regarding possible US actions in the event of Putin’s refusal to negotiate.

Why was the message transmitted specifically through the CIA director

Ratcliffe’s contact with Bortnikov is taking place in parallel with other channels of communication between the administration of US President Donald Trump and the Kremlin.

According to the publication, Trump’s special representative Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner also participate in these contacts.

Some American officials believe that Putin, who himself has a past in the Soviet intelligence services, may take the assessment conveyed by the CIA director more seriously than a similar signal through traditional diplomatic channels.

The United States considers Russia’s progress insufficient

According to the NYT, the American side assesses the situation on the front for the Russian Federation as difficult: Russian troops are suffering significant losses, while their territorial advance remains limited.

Ratcliffe previously stated that during his 18 months as CIA director, Russia was able to seize about 1% of Ukraine’s territory.

According to his assessment, one of the factors that significantly restrains Russian troops has become the effective use of drones by Ukraine.

Ratcliffe contacted Ukraine before Moscow

It is important that before meeting with Bortnikov, the CIA director, according to the NYT, held a conversation with the Ukrainian side.

Ratcliffe allegedly assured his Ukrainian colleagues that he was going to Moscow primarily to find out Russia’s position.

At the same time, he emphasized that he did not plan to negotiate territorial or any other concessions from Ukraine.

Thus, the meeting of the heads of the CIA and FSB could become another channel through which Washington is trying to understand the Kremlin’s readiness for real negotiations and at the same time convey to the Russian leadership the American assessment of its current situation in the war.