NATO fears Trump will increase pressure on the Alliance after the US elections

European NATO allies are preparing for a possible worsening of relations with the United States after the midterm elections to Congress, which will be held on November 3. In the event of a defeat for the Republican Party, US President Donald Trump may increase criticism of the Alliance, reduce the American military presence in Europe and limit support for Ukraine.

This was reported by Politico, citing five NATO diplomats.

According to the publication, European partners fear that the loss of Republican control of Congress may force Trump to focus on foreign policy, where the US president has broader powers.

Diplomats suggest that the American leader may use international solutions to strengthen his own political positions and mobilize supporters of the MAGA movement.

The US may reduce military presence in Europe

One of the main concerns of the allies is the possible withdrawal of several thousand American troops from Europe.

By December 2026, the United States is due to complete a review of its military presence on the European continent. According to diplomats, the election results could significantly affect Washington’s final decision.

In addition, the Trump administration could potentially reduce funding for NATO programs and limit US participation in certain defense initiatives.

What are the risks for Ukraine?

According to Politico’s sources, a possible worsening of relations between Washington and NATO could directly affect military support for Ukraine.

In particular, diplomats do not rule out that Trump could limit the PURL program, which provides for the purchase of American weapons for Ukraine at the expense of NATO partners.

Also among the potential risks is the further rapprochement of the US administration with Russia.

At the same time, the White House rejects criticism of the US president’s policy towards the Alliance. Assistant to the administration’s press secretary Olivia Wells said that Trump has done more for NATO than any other US president.

According to her, the American leader continues to insist on the need for greater support for the United States from European allies.

NATO does not have a unified threat assessment

Despite the concerns of some diplomats, not all representatives of the Alliance believe that Trump will take radical steps.

Montenegrin Defense Minister Dragan Krapović recalled that predictions about a possible US withdrawal from NATO have been made repeatedly, but have not yet come true.

At the same time, diplomats admit that it is difficult to predict the American president’s further decisions.

After the elections, personnel changes are possible in the Pentagon

Another consequence of the potential defeat of the Republicans could be changes in the leadership of the US Department of Defense.

According to Politico, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has faced criticism in Congress for not sufficiently informing lawmakers about military operations and budget spending.

If the Democrats win in Congress, parliamentary investigations may be launched against him. This, in turn, could lead to his resignation.

If the Pentagon leadership changes, decisions on the US military presence in Europe could be delayed for several weeks or months.

The midterm elections to the US Congress will be held on November 3, 2026. Americans will re-elect the entire House of Representatives and about a third of the Senate. Their results could significantly affect Washington’s future foreign policy, relations with NATO, and support for Ukraine.

At the same time, all of the above scenarios currently remain diplomatic assumptions, rather than officially announced decisions by the US administration.