Oleg Pendzin: the exchange rate of 51 hryvnia per dollar by 2029 is still only a theoretical scenario

Economist Oleg Pendzin exclusively for Femida.ua stated that the projected dollar exchange rate of 51 hryvnias for 2028 cannot currently be considered a realistic guideline.

According to him, Ukrainian practice shows that budget forecasts should be seriously assessed only for the nearest year, while long-term indicators often differ significantly from the actual situation.

“It makes sense to discuss only the first year out of three. The last two are usually very far from reality,” Pendzin emphasized.

The economist explained that the hryvnia exchange rate directly depends on the volume of international financial assistance. Currently, Ukraine has confirmed macro-financing for 2026 and 2027 — about 90 billion euros.

“Nobody knows what will happen in 2028 or 2029 today. Without this answer, talking about an exchange rate of 51 hryvnia is simply pointless,” the expert noted.

At the same time, Pendzin admits that in 2027 the average annual exchange rate may reach about 48 hryvnias per dollar, but further forecasts directly depend on international support and the overall economic situation.