Ukrainian construction companies predict reduction in work and orders — NBU

Ukrainian construction companies in October 2026 significantly worsened their assessments of their business activity. Companies expect a reduction in construction volumes, new orders and purchases of materials. The main reasons were the suspension of state funding for infrastructure restoration, a shortage of workers and seasonal factors.

This is evidenced by the results of a monthly survey by the National Bank of Ukraine.

According to the regulator, the business activity expectations index (BIEA) in October was 47.1 points compared to 48.2 in September. For comparison, in October 2025 the indicator was at 50.3 points.

The most pessimistic assessments were recorded in the construction sector.

The construction industry shows the greatest deterioration in expectations

The construction sector index in October decreased to 38.5 points compared to 48.8 in September and 53.3 in October last year.

After seven consecutive months of positive assessments, construction companies have begun to forecast a significant decrease in the volume of work and the number of new orders.

In particular, companies expect a reduction in purchases of construction materials and raw materials, as well as a decrease in the volume of contractors.

At the same time, companies predict a further increase in the cost of contracting services.

Among the main factors worsening the situation are the suspension of state funding for the restoration of roads and infrastructure facilities, a shortage of qualified specialists, and a seasonal decrease in activity.

What is the situation in other sectors of the economy

Negative expectations were also recorded in industry, trade, and the service sector.

In October, sectoral indices were:

Construction — 38.5 points versus 48.8 in September.

Trade — 46.8 points versus 45.9.

Services — 47.4 points versus 47.3.

Industry — 48.0 points versus 51.0.

Industrial enterprises expect a decrease in new orders, in particular export orders, although they continue to predict an increase in production volumes.

Trading companies report a deterioration in working conditions due to damage to warehouse infrastructure and an increase in the cost of transporting and storing goods.

In the service sector, enterprises also expect a decrease in activity and new orders.

Business predicts staff reductions

The situation on the labor market remains a separate problem.

According to the results of the NBU survey, heads of enterprises in all sectors expect a decrease in the number of employees. The most significant reduction in staff is predicted in the construction industry.

In addition, most enterprises expect a further increase in purchase prices for raw materials, materials and their own products.

In general, the economic activity of Ukrainian businesses is negatively affected by the intensification of Russian attacks on energy, production and logistics infrastructure, power outages, rising fuel prices and a shortage of personnel.

At the same time, stable consumer demand, sufficient supply of goods, and the development of alternative logistics routes remain factors supporting economic activity.