“Fedorov’s return will be Zelensky’s political defeat.” Oleksandr Leonov on protests, a new center of influence, and a possible reformatting of power

The resignation of Mykhailo Fedorov from the post of Minister of Defense became one of the loudest political events of this year. For the first time during a full-scale war, a personnel decision by the authorities caused mass protests, which did not subside even after the change of leadership of the Armed Forces and the appointment of an acting Minister of Defense.

Why did the story around Fedorov not end with his dismissal? Why can’t the authorities still close this topic? Is the former minister capable of becoming a separate political center of influence, and the President of Ukraine losing part of his own electorate?

Political scientist Oleksandr Leonov told this in an exclusive interview with Femida.ua.

“People were outraged not by the resignation, but by the silence of the authorities”

According to the expert, the current political crisis arose not so much because of the dismissal of Fedorov himself, but because of the complete lack of explanations why this happened.

According to Leonov, Ukrainians did not receive answers either about the reasons for the resignation of the previous government or about the failure to appoint Fedorov to a new position.

It was the information vacuum, the political scientist is convinced, that turned an ordinary personnel decision into a large-scale political problem.

“The main mistake was failed communication. People were not explained why such a decision was made. This is what became the catalyst for the protests,” the expert notes.

Why the protests did not stop

Olexandr Leonov draws attention to the uniqueness of the current situation.

After the personnel changes in the military leadership, the authorities expected that protest activity would gradually fade away. However, this did not happen. On the contrary, the public demand has changed – now the main demand of some protesters has become the return of Mykhailo Fedorov. The political scientist explains this by the fact that for many Ukrainians, especially young people, Fedorov has become a symbol of the modern state, reforms and technological development.

That is why his resignation without clear explanations is perceived as a signal of a possible reversal of changes.

Why Zelensky will not return Fedorov

According to Leonov, there are almost no chances of Mykhailo Fedorov returning to the Ministry of Defense.

The reason is not personnel, but political.

“For the President, this would mean admitting his own mistake. Fedorov’s return would be a direct political defeat and would demonstrate that the decision can be reconsidered under pressure from the street,” the political scientist believes.

He is convinced that this is why Bankova will most likely look for other options for the development of events, even if the public demand for the return of the former minister persists.

Fedorov ceases to be just a member of Zelensky’s team

One of the main theses of the interview was an assessment of the political future of Mikhail Fedorov.

According to Leonov, after the former minister’s recent statements, it is already difficult to talk only about internal personnel history. Fedorov is gradually forming his own political image.

At first, he publicly reported on the results of the work of the Ministry of Defense, and later stated that the procurement reforms affected the interests of many influential groups.

According to the political scientist, this is how the formation of a separate political platform begins.

“Fedorov ceases to be just a person from Zelensky’s team. He is gradually becoming an independent political player,” says Leonov.

A new center of gravity for supporters of the government

The expert draws attention to another important aspect. Mikhail Fedorov is claiming precisely the audience that previously supported Volodymyr Zelensky.

Not only sociological research, but also the participation in protests of public figures who have openly supported the incumbent President in recent years have become an indicative signal.

“Fedorov is taking with him a significant part of the positive history of the current government. And Zelensky is increasingly having to answer questions about corruption and personnel decisions,” the political scientist notes.

In his opinion, this may be one of the key challenges for Bankova in the coming months.

Will Fedorov create his own party?

Oleksandr Leonov does not rule out that after the final break with the ruling team, Mikhail Fedorov may go into independent politics.

Moreover, the expert believes that creating his own political force looks more logical than joining existing projects.

“If he goes alone, he will fully control the political agenda and will not depend on other centers of influence. This is the scenario that looks most likely today,” Leonov predicts.

Khmara has a chance to become a full-fledged minister

At the same time, the political scientist positively assesses the prospects of the acting Minister of Defense Yevhen Khmara.

According to him, the first personnel decisions of the new head of the Ministry of Defense were positively received by both the expert community and Ukraine’s international partners.

Leonov does not rule out that Khmara may receive a full-fledged appointment after completing all the necessary procedures.

However, the expert warns that he will face an extremely difficult task – to prove the effectiveness of the personnel replacement.

It is not only about continuing the reforms of defense procurement and control over the use of budget funds, but also about implementing those changes that society has already associated with the activities of the previous minister.

“The biggest political intrigue is yet to come”

According to Oleksandr Leonov, the current story is only gaining momentum. The key moment will be the President’s nomination of a new Minister of Defense to the Verkhovna Rada. It is then, the political scientist predicts, that the country may see a new surge in social tension. If Mykhailo Fedorov finally moves into an independent political sphere, Ukrainian politics may gain a new powerful player who will claim the electorate of the current government.

“If this scenario is realized, we may witness not just personnel changes, but the beginning of a major political reformatting in Ukraine,” he summarizes.