Grain exports from Ukraine have risen sharply in price: the cost of sea transportation has increased almost fourfold

The cost of transporting goods from Ukrainian Danube ports to Egypt has reached record levels. Freight rates for small sea vessels have exceeded $100 per ton, although in June they were about $30. The reasons were shipping problems, weather restrictions and security risks in the Black Sea.

This is reported by ASAP Agri.

The cost of transporting grain has increased almost fourfold

As of October 23, 2026, freight rates for small sea vessels of the “koster” type on the route from the Danube to Egypt were approximately $108–110 per ton.

This is a new maximum for the specified direction.

For comparison, in June transportation cost about $30 per ton.

Thus, in just four months the cost of transportation has increased by about 3.6 times.

For example, for the transportation of a 5,000-ton grain shipment at a rate of $110 per ton, the freight will be $550,000. At the June rate, a similar shipment would cost about $150,000.

The difference is $400,000 in freight costs alone.

Why are exports via the Danube becoming more expensive

One of the main reasons for the price increase was the problems with the passage of the Sulin Canal.

Due to adverse weather conditions, it is periodically closed to shipping.

This leads to the accumulation of ships in queues and increased waiting times.

An additional factor is the attacks on merchant ships in the Black Sea, which increase the risks for shipowners.

As a result, the number of ships ready to sail from Ukrainian Danube ports has significantly decreased.

Shipowners who continue to operate in this direction are offering increasingly higher rates.

There is a shortage of ships, and it is becoming more difficult to negotiate transportation

According to analysts, the situation is complicated by the significant difference between the price expectations of cargo owners and shipowners.

Due to high rates, the parties are increasingly less likely to reach agreements.

The number of concluded agreements remains minimal.

This also makes it difficult to determine the current market value of transportation.

The actual price depends on the location of the ship, the conditions of passage through the canal and other features of a particular voyage.

Dozens of ships are piling up on the Danube

Problems with shipping have already led to significant delays.

At the end of September, about 125 ships accumulated on the approaches to the Sulin Canal due to a week-long suspension of navigation.

As of October 21, about 80 ships were waiting for passage.

At the same time, some berths in Ukrainian Danube ports remained free.

This shows that restrictions on the capacity of waterways can hold back transportation even when port capacities are available.

Problems have also arisen with barge transportation

The situation on the river transportation market also remains difficult.

Due to restrictions on the draft of vessels on the Danube, barges cannot use their full carrying capacity.

This reduces the available transportation volumes and increases the tonnage deficit.

As a result, the logistical capabilities of the Danube route remain limited.

What does this mean for Ukrainian farmers

The increase in the cost of maritime logistics creates additional financial pressure on exporters of Ukrainian agricultural products.

The increase in transportation costs can reduce the profitability of export operations and make it difficult to conclude new contracts.

Such changes can be especially noticeable for companies that use Danube ports as one of the main routes for supplying grain to foreign markets.

At the same time, the actual impact on farmers’ incomes will depend on the terms of contracts, product prices, and the distribution of logistics costs between trading participants.