Milk, sour cream and kefir may increase in price by 20–25%: Ukrainians warned about new prices

In Ukraine, the cost of dairy products may increase significantly by the end of 2026. The most significant price increase is predicted for milk, kefir, sour cream and yogurt – their prices may rise by approximately 20-25%.

The increase is likely to occur gradually, and buyers may notice the first changes as early as October.

Among the main reasons are the increase in the cost of production, possible power outages, costs for generators, fuel and logistics, as well as a reduction in total milk production.

Generators will add hryvnia to each liter of milk

One of the main risks for the dairy industry in the fall and winter remains unstable power supply.

Dairy farms need electricity constantly: for milking equipment, milk cooling, ventilation, water supply and other technological processes.

During outages, enterprises have to switch to generators.

According to the assessment of Olena Zhupinas, Deputy Director General of the Milk Producers Association, the use of diesel generation can increase the cost of one liter of milk by approximately UAH 3–3.5.

This is a significant burden for producers, especially given the high cost of fuel.

Milk production has decreased by more than 12%

Another factor that may affect prices is the reduction in production.

In the first eight months of 2026, the total volume of milk production in Ukraine decreased by more than 12%.

The largest reduction was recorded in private farms – by approximately 27%.

At the same time, professional dairy farms, on the contrary, increased production by approximately 4%.

So far, this has not led to a critical shortage of raw materials for industrial processing. About 95% of the milk that processing enterprises receive comes from specialized farms.

Shelling also affects prices

The consequences of Russian attacks also affect the cost of products.

Damage to enterprises, warehouses, and logistics infrastructure are forcing manufacturers and retail chains to change supply routes and look for alternative storage facilities.

At the same time, there is currently no systemic shortage of dairy products in stores.

In some retail outlets, the range of certain manufacturers may temporarily decrease due to damage to facilities or shutdown of enterprises.

What will happen to butter and cheese

Butter and cheese may also become more expensive, but the growth rates for their prices are predicted to be lower than for fresh dairy products.

In the case of butter, the situation on foreign markets will play an additional role. If export prices are more attractive, it may be more profitable for Ukrainian producers to increase supplies abroad.

At the same time, a sharp increase in prices within the country is restrained by the purchasing power of Ukrainians: too high a price can lead to a drop in demand.

When to expect new prices

The projected 20–25% does not mean that dairy products will increase in price by a quarter in one day.

It is expected that manufacturers and retail chains will revise prices gradually.

The first changes may be noticeable as early as October, and the further situation will depend primarily on the stability of the energy system, the cost of fuel, logistics, raw materials and consumer demand.

At the same time, stores may use promotions and discounts more actively, trying to retain customers.

However, after the price increase, it may be difficult for manufacturers to return them to the previous level.