Personnel reset of power: is Ukraine preparing for elections and why did Zelensky strengthen the vertical?

Large-scale personnel changes in power are unlikely to indicate a quick start to the electoral process. Instead, the updated power structure may be primarily a response to the risks of the coming months — preparations for winter and a possible escalation from Russia. At the same time, the discussion about the upcoming elections has actually already begun.

Political expert Oleksiy Buryachenko said this in a commentary for Femida.ua, analyzing the latest personnel decisions in power.

They want elections, but it is impossible to hold them now

According to the expert, it is still too early to talk about the beginning of a new political stage in Ukraine. A full-fledged political cycle involves an electoral process, but today there is no answer even to the basic question — when exactly Ukrainians will be able to go to the polls again.

At the same time, political activity in the country is already noticeably increasing.

“We have a somewhat strange, specific situation during the war: politics already exists, many political actors want elections and the electoral process. But we simply do not know when the next elections will be,” notes expert Oleksiy Buryachenko.

That is, the actual preparation of political players may begin much earlier than the legal and security opportunity to hold the vote appears.

Electronic elections may become one of the main challenges

A separate question is what the post-war electoral process should be like in general. According to the expert, the current discussion may push the state to more actively develop the mechanism of electronic voting.

But launching an untested system immediately during the presidential or parliamentary elections would be extremely risky.

The system will have to not only be created, but also tested in conditions of artificially simulated threats, in particular those that Russia could potentially create.

That is why the Femida.ua interlocutor does not expect a full-fledged electoral process in the conditions of the active phase of the war or in the coming months.

312 votes for new defense minister — an important signal

At the same time, the latest decisions of the Verkhovna Rada have demonstrated that the parliament, despite talk of political fatigue and internal contradictions, remains capable of consolidating around key issues.

The vote for the president’s proposed candidate for the new defense minister — former head of the SBU, Yevheniy Khmara — was indicative. His appointment was supported by 312 people’s deputies.

The expert calls this result unprecedented and considers it an answer to some questions about the current parliament’s ability to work effectively.

“The parliament has become stronger, perhaps after going through a certain period of internal transformation,” he noted.

Zelenskyy simultaneously strengthened the presidential vertical

The personnel reset affected not only the government. Changes took place in the power and security bloc, in particular in the Foreign Intelligence Service and the National Security and Defense Council.

In fact, it is about restructuring a significant part of the vertical, which will be responsible for key state decisions in the near future.

At the same time, Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga actually retained his position. As the expert notes, there were no serious complaints about his work before the personnel reset.

As a result, the current system of power has become more consolidated: the parliament has demonstrated the ability to gather a constitutional majority, and the presidential vertical has received an updated configuration.

The main reason for the reshuffle may not be the elections at all

That is why personnel decisions should be considered not only through the prism of the upcoming elections.

According to the expert, Ukraine’s preparation for winter and the risk of further escalation from Russia are much more important for the authorities now.

The closer the autumn-winter period is, the more security challenges may grow. Accordingly, the authorities needed a structure capable of quickly making decisions and working in conditions of potential escalation.

“The authorities have completed the reset. And the tasks that Zelensky has set, with the priorities of preparing for winter and escalation from the Russian Federation, this structure can withstand most effectively,” the expert concluded.

Thus, the personnel reset is more like the preparation of the state apparatus for a difficult autumn and winter than the start of the election campaign. But the political discussion about the upcoming elections has already begun — and as the moment approaches when the security situation will allow us to talk about the vote in detail, it will only intensify.