Pork shortage predicted in Ukraine: prices could exceed UAH 100 per kilogram

In Ukraine, a further increase in purchase prices for pork is predicted. Already during the week from October 26 to November 1, 2026, the price of live weight pigs can reach UAH 72-73 per kilogram. At the same time, experts warn about the risk of an acute shortage of pork during the next year.

According to experts, purchase prices will increase by approximately 6% compared to the previous week. The average cost of pigs by live weight has already increased by UAH 4 per kilogram.

Why there may be a shortage of pork in Ukraine

One of the main reasons for instability in the market remains the spread of African swine fever (ASF).

In regions where outbreaks of the disease are recorded, there is an oversupply and a decrease in purchase prices. At the same time, the reduction of livestock creates risks for future production.

Analysts warn that within the next year, the Ukrainian meat industry may face an acute shortage of pigs.

According to a pessimistic forecast, the purchase price of live weight may significantly exceed UAH 100 per kilogram.

This, in turn, can cause a significant increase in the price of pork for end consumers.

What are the prices for pork in Europe

For comparison, the following purchase prices are forecast on European markets:

Germany: half carcasses of conditioned pigs — 1.40 EUR/kg (approx. 70.61 UAH), half carcasses of sows — 0.58 EUR/kg (29.25 UAH).
Poland: the average cost of live pigs is PLN 4.36/kg (UAH 50.31).
The price range in Poland: from 3.80 to 5 zlotys per kilogram (43.85–57.70 hryvnias).

Thus, the forecasted purchase price of live pigs in Ukraine exceeds the average indicator of the Polish market.

What does this mean for Ukrainians?

Experts warn that the reduction in the number of pigs can have a negative impact not only on meat producers, but also on the agricultural sector in general.

In particular, pig farming remains one of the important grain sales channels for Ukrainian farmers.

A further reduction in production may lead to a decrease in the supply of pork in the domestic market and an increase in its cost.

At the same time, the forecasted UAH 100 per kilogram refers to the purchase price of pigs by live weight, and not to the retail price of meat in stores.

So, if the negative forecasts of industry analysts come true, Ukrainians may face a new wave of pork price increases as early as 2027.