The naval blockade halved Ukrainian oil exports: what is happening to the market?

Ukraine has significantly reduced the supply of vegetable oils abroad due to the suspension of sea exports. Currently, monthly exports are about 300 thousand tons – about half as much as before the emergence of logistical problems. The situation has already affected the purchase prices for sunflower.

This was reported by Stepan Kapshuk, General Director of the Ukroliyaprom Association.

Oil exports have halved

In August, Ukraine exports approximately 5–7 thousand tons of sunflower oil per day. Another 2–3 thousand tons daily are rapeseed and soybean oil.

As a result, the total volume of exports has decreased to approximately 300 thousand tons per month. Previously, this figure was almost twice as high.

The main problem for the industry remains the inability to fully use sea routes to export finished products.

Sunflower prices have gone down

Export restrictions also directly affect the domestic market. According to Kapshuk, it is precisely the difficulties in selling finished oil that have become one of the main reasons for the decline in purchase prices for sunflower.

Processors are forced to consider not only production capabilities, but also how much product they can actually export abroad.

Additional pressure is created by the lack of transport and storage capacity. With exports slowing down, stocks of finished products accumulate faster, which limits the ability of enterprises to purchase new batches of raw materials.

When the situation may improve

Ukroliyaprom expects that some of the logistical problems will be resolved within the next two to three weeks.

At the same time, stable exports remain critically important for Ukraine. By the end of the year, the country’s vegetable oil production may reach about 7 million tons, while domestic consumption is estimated at only about 300 thousand tons.

Thus, the vast majority of production is focused on external markets, and any prolonged restrictions on maritime logistics pose risks to the entire industry, from agricultural producers to processing plants.

Amid supply problems, the situation is already attracting the attention of major importers. In particular, India has begun to look for alternatives to sunflower oil from the Black Sea region due to supply delays.