Trump announced a Patriot production license for Ukraine: ISW assessed the risks

After US President Donald Trump’s statement about his readiness to grant Ukraine a license to produce interceptor missiles for Patriot air defense systems, the aggressor country Russia may try to make the most of the time before the launch of Ukrainian production and increase the intensity of missile strikes.

This is stated in a new report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to analysts, the production of missiles for Patriot complexes in Ukraine may begin in two to three months. At the same time, experts emphasize that the implementation of this project will depend on a number of factors, including the transfer of technology, the availability of production facilities, components, and the ability to quickly deploy a full production cycle.

ISW draws attention to the fact that it is currently unknown which missiles are in question – the more modern PAC-3 interceptors or PAC-2 missiles. In addition, according to Donald Trump, the American manufacturer of Patriot systems has not yet been officially notified of the upcoming transfer of the license to Ukraine.

Analysts also note that even after receiving the license, Ukraine will need some time to establish mass production, as it is necessary to ensure the supply of components and create the appropriate production infrastructure.

It is this period of time, according to experts, that Russia can use to intensify missile terror.

According to ISW estimates, the Russian military-industrial complex is currently capable of producing 60-65 Iskander ballistic missiles per month, which allows the Kremlin to maintain a high pace of attacks on Ukrainian territory.

The report emphasizes that Moscow may seek to inflict maximum damage on Ukraine until it is able to independently produce interceptor missiles and significantly strengthen its own air defense system.

The issue of providing Ukraine with air defense equipment remains one of the key issues during negotiations with international partners. Recall, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky previously appealed to US President Donald Trump and Congress with a request to grant a license for the production of Patriot anti-ballistic missiles.

During the NATO summit in Ankara, Donald Trump confirmed his intention to transfer the relevant license to Ukraine, noting that the issue still requires final coordination with the American manufacturer.

The need to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses became especially obvious after the massive Russian attack on Kyiv on the night of July 6. Then, according to the Ukrainian authorities, due to a critical shortage of missiles for the Patriot complexes, it was not possible to intercept a single ballistic missile, which led to numerous casualties and large-scale destruction.