Ukraine began to import more dairy products than it exported: trade deficit reached $76.7 million

The Ukrainian dairy industry has faced a significant deterioration in foreign trade indicators. In the first nine months of 2026, imports of dairy products increased by 22%, while exports decreased by 16.2%. As a result, Ukraine went from a positive trade balance to a deficit of $76.7 million.

Ukraine spends more on dairy imports than it earns on exports

According to the results of January-September 2026, Ukraine exported dairy products worth $203.6 million. This is 16.2% less than in the same period last year.

At the same time, imports increased by 22% and reached $280.3 million.

The total volume of foreign trade in dairy products amounted to about $484 million, which is 2.4% more than last year.

However, the increase in trade turnover was accompanied by a significant deterioration in the balance.

If in the first nine months of 2025 Ukraine had a positive balance of $13.2 million, then in 2026 it became negative – minus $76.7 million.

Thus, over the year the trade balance of the dairy industry deteriorated by almost $90 million.

Butter exports decreased sharply

The largest drop was recorded in the butter and other dairy fats segment.

In terms of volume, their exports decreased by approximately 1.8 times.

The structure of export revenues has also changed. If in August 2025 butter provided more than a third of the industry’s foreign exchange earnings, then in August 2026 its share was only 15%.

At the same time, not all categories of dairy products demonstrate negative dynamics.

In the first nine months of 2026, exports of individual goods increased:

Fermented milk products – by 25.5%.

Whey – by 5.2%.

Drinking milk and liquid cream – by 3.8%.

Cheese – by 3.5%.

In contrast, exports of powdered and condensed milk decreased by 1%.

Despite the positive dynamics in certain segments, this was not enough to compensate for the overall decline in export revenues.

Imports of milk and butter increased several times

At the same time, Ukraine significantly increased purchases of dairy products abroad.

The most noticeable growth occurred in the following categories:

Drinking milk and liquid cream – imports increased by approximately 2.8 times.

Butter and milk fats – approximately doubled.

Whey – by 33%.

Cheese – by 11%.

At the same time, cheeses remain the main category of imported dairy products.

The growth of purchases abroad against the background of a decrease in exports is increasing the negative balance of foreign trade and increasing competition for Ukrainian producers in the domestic market.

Did exports begin to recover in September

In September 2026, the first signs of a revival in dairy exports appeared.

According to the publication’s calculations, during the month Ukraine exported dairy products worth approximately $26.7 million, while imports amounted to about $33.1 million.

Therefore, even with a certain revival of sales abroad, imports continued to exceed exports.

According to the results of eight months, the foreign trade deficit amounted to $70.3 million. In September, it increased by another $6.4 million.

The Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine emphasizes that positive changes within one month do not yet indicate a sustainable recovery in exports.

What does this mean for Ukrainian producers

The deterioration of the foreign trade balance indicates an increase in challenges for the Ukrainian dairy industry.

On the one hand, domestic enterprises are losing part of their export revenues. On the other hand, the presence of imported products is increasing in the domestic market.

The Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine believes that the industry needs to focus on increasing competitiveness.

Among the main priorities are the development of export directions, increasing sales of products with higher added value, and strengthening the positions of Ukrainian producers in the domestic market.

At the same time, the statistics presented do not allow us to draw an unambiguous conclusion about future retail prices for milk, butter, or cheese. They are also influenced by the cost of production, logistics, seasonality, and the situation with consumer demand.

According to the results of the first nine months of 2026, Ukraine for the first time in the comparable period moved from a positive to a negative trade balance of dairy products. The future prospects of the industry will depend on the ability of producers to increase exports and compete with imported goods.