Ukraine may lose part of the grain market to Egypt and Turkey due to Russian attacks on ports

Ukraine risks losing some of its contracts on key external grain markets due to Russian attacks on port infrastructure. If the cost of Ukrainian products increases and delivery times become less predictable, buyers may switch to other suppliers.

Egypt may find an alternative to Ukrainian wheat

Egypt remains one of the most vulnerable destinations for Ukrainian exporters. During the season, Ukraine supplied about 3.86 million tons of wheat to this market.

The peculiarity of the Egyptian market is that a significant part of the grain is purchased on competitive terms. Accordingly, even a change in the cost of the product or its delivery terms may affect the choice of supplier.

According to Maksym Hopka, if the conditions for the supply of Ukrainian grain deteriorate, some of the contracts could potentially be awarded to Russia, Romania, Bulgaria, France or the USA.

Russia may increase supplies to Turkey

Another critically important destination for Ukraine remains Turkey, which purchases significant volumes of agricultural products.

In the event of disruptions to Ukrainian exports, the country may increase purchases of Russian grain.

For corn, the range of competitors is even wider. Turkey could potentially switch to products from the United States, Brazil, or Argentina.

Thus, regular Russian attacks on Ukrainian port and logistics infrastructure pose risks not only to physical exports of products, but also to Ukraine’s long-term positions in the international agricultural market.

Ukraine retains an important advantage

At the same time, Ukrainian farmers have a significant competitive advantage — geographical location.

Proximity to Turkey and Egypt and a relatively short route across the Black Sea allow for reduced transportation costs. This helps Ukrainian grain compete with products from suppliers from more distant countries.

However, this advantage only works if port logistics are stable. If Russian attacks increase insurance, transportation, and other costs or delay shipments, the competitiveness of Ukrainian exports may decline.

In this case, the struggle for the traditional Ukrainian markets of Egypt and Turkey may significantly intensify.