Why is fuel becoming more expensive in Ukraine and is it worth waiting for a new price jump: explanation by economist Ivan Us

Despite new talk about fuel price increases in Ukraine, there are currently no grounds for a sharp jump in prices. The main factors remain world oil prices, Ukraine’s import dependence and the consequences of the war. This opinion was expressed by economist Ivan Us in an interview.

According to him, Ukraine is completely dependent on imported fuel, since its own oil refining capacities were significantly destroyed as a result of Russian attacks. That is why prices at Ukrainian gas stations are formed primarily under the influence of the world oil market.

The expert notes that although the cost of oil on world markets has recently increased to approximately $90 per barrel, this is still lower than the spring peak, when the price exceeded $110. In addition, international analysts predict that by 2030, the supply of oil in the world will exceed demand, which will restrain a significant increase in the cost of energy carriers.

At the same time, the war continues to create additional risks. Russian attacks on fuel infrastructure may affect logistics, but each price increase, the economist emphasizes, must be economically justified, and not used as a pretext for an unjustified increase in fuel prices.

Which goods may become more expensive

Ivan Us draws attention to the fact that food products remain the most sensitive to changes in fuel prices, since transportation costs directly affect their final price. An additional risk factor is the situation in the agricultural sector – the safety of the harvest, attacks on frontline regions and the state of logistics. The prices of goods whose production depends on territories that are regularly subjected to Russian shelling may become the most expensive.

Business continues to operate despite the war

Assessing the state of small and medium-sized businesses, the economist notes that Ukrainian entrepreneurs demonstrate high resilience. Despite the war, new production facilities are being opened, jobs are being created, and exports of individual enterprises are even increasing.

At the same time, he warns the state against recklessly raising taxes. According to the expert, any tax changes should be accompanied by a thorough analysis, as excessive tax burden can lead to business closure and a reduction in budget revenues.

What is better to invest savings in

Speaking of savings, Ivan Us advises Ukrainians to focus more on the euro, given Ukraine’s course towards European integration and the practical need to use this currency when traveling to EU countries. At the same time, he does not call for a complete abandonment of the dollar, but recommends being cautious about cryptocurrencies, since they do not have state guarantees.