A dollar for 50 hryvnias, diesel for 100 and a rise in the price of products: economist Ivan Us told what to expect for Ukrainians in 2027

Will the price of diesel fuel increase to 100 hryvnias per liter, why dairy products may increase in price by 25%, what dollar exchange rate to expect in 2027 and what threatens the financial stability of Ukrainians the most? Economic expert Ivan Us spoke about the main economic challenges, the impact of the war on prices and the prospects for the national currency in an interview with Femida.ua.

Diesel for 100 hryvnias: is Ukraine threatened by a new jump in fuel prices

The situation around the Strait of Hormuz, through which important oil supply routes pass, continues to cause concern on global energy markets. At the same time, economic expert Ivan Us believes that the prerequisites for a sharp increase in fuel prices may gradually disappear.

According to him, despite the preservation of military tensions in the region, international transportation statistics indicate a recovery in oil transportation volumes.

“It turns out that the volumes have recovered, which means that there are no prerequisites for a wild rise in world oil prices and, as a result, petroleum products,” explained Ivan Us.

One of the possible factors for stabilizing the situation, the expert calls the use of alternative oil transportation routes and pipeline infrastructure bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

“This will be a prerequisite for diesel prices to go down. We will then observe how events in the region, Europe and Ukraine will develop, because Ukraine imports diesel from Europe,” the economist noted.

Thus, Ivan Us does not predict an inevitable increase in the cost of diesel to 100 hryvnias per liter. On the contrary, provided that international supplies stabilize, he allows for a decrease in prices.

At the same time, the further situation will depend on security risks in the Middle East and the situation on the world oil market.

Dairy products may rise in price by 25%: what affects prices

Amid reports of a risk of a price increase of about 25%, Ivan Us explained that the main factors are the cost of fuel and problems with logistics.

“Of course, fuel affects the supply of any product, not just dairy. But here the combination of fuel price increases and logistics problems is a combination,” the expert emphasized.

According to him, Russian attacks on transport infrastructure create additional economic risks, which may ultimately be reflected in the final cost of goods.

This is especially true for transportation across the Dnieper, where damage to bridges or the threat of new attacks complicates the transportation of products.

“Any carriers who need to deliver cow feed or milk to the place of sale are wondering whether it is worth taking the risk and sending their cars through the Dnieper,” Ivan Us explained.

He noted that the increase in transport and insurance risks inevitably affects the cost of products.

“Due to the increase in these insurance risks of crossing bridges across the Dnieper, this is reflected in prices,” the expert emphasized.

At the same time, a specific increase in the price of dairy products by 25% currently remains a possible scenario, not a confirmed forecast by Ivan Us.

Why are products sometimes more expensive in Ukraine than in Europe

Another question that worries Ukrainians is why certain food products in Ukraine cost more than in the countries of the European Union, despite the significant difference in the income of the population.

Ivan Us emphasized that, first of all, it is necessary to distinguish between goods of Ukrainian production and imported products.

In the case of imported goods, the final price is affected by the exchange rate, transportation costs, fuel, and additional risks associated with the war.

“When there is an import factor, there are also fuel prices, because it needs to be delivered, and, of course, the difference in exchange rates. They buy for currency, plus the costs of delivery to Ukraine, so it will be more expensive,” the expert noted.

At the same time, the situation with products produced directly in Ukraine, in his opinion, requires a separate analysis.

“This is a strange situation if these are products grown in Ukraine or produced from what was grown in Ukraine. This is most likely an attempt to earn more money than real economic grounds,” Ivan Us suggested.

At the same time, the economist sees no reason to talk about a general food shortage in Ukraine.

According to his assessment, the state’s agricultural potential allows us to meet the domestic needs of the population, although individual goods may become more expensive due to supply disruptions.

Dollar exchange rate in 2027: should we prepare for 50 hryvnias

During the discussion of the draft state budget for 2027, Ivan Us also commented on the prospects for the foreign exchange market.

According to him, in budget calculations, they can use the average annual dollar exchange rate of approximately 47–48 hryvnias.

“Most likely, they will set the average, let’s say 47.5. Will the dollar cost 47.5? We’ll see,” the economist noted.

The expert recalled that the forecast currency rates included in the state budget do not always coincide with the actual average annual rate.

In his opinion, the real rate may be lower than the forecast.

At the same time, the currency market is influenced by two opposite factors.

The first is the negative balance with