IMF worsens Ukraine’s economic growth forecast for 2026

The International Monetary Fund has revised its economic growth forecast for Ukraine for 2026 downwards. This was announced in an IMF press release following the staff agreement on the first review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

The Fund notes that despite Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine and the negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East, the Ukrainian economy continues to demonstrate resilience thanks to prudent macroeconomic policies and significant international financial support.

According to IMF estimates, Ukraine’s gross domestic product growth will be only 1–1.6% in 2026. The main reasons for the slowdown include the lingering effects of the war, security risks, and the difficult international economic situation.

The Fund emphasizes that risks to the Ukrainian economy remain extremely high, although the National Bank of Ukraine manages to maintain financial stability, a sufficient level of international reserves, and control inflation expectations.

It is worth noting that back in April, the IMF predicted growth of the Ukrainian economy at 2%, but now expectations have been revised downwards.

Earlier, the State Statistics Service also reported a deterioration in the assessment of GDP dynamics in the first quarter of 2026. According to the updated data, Ukraine’s real GDP decreased by 0.6% in annual terms, and taking into account the seasonal factor – by 0.7% compared to the previous quarter.

According to the results of 2025, Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 1.8%, while in 2024 this figure was 3.2%. The nominal volume of gross domestic product last year reached 8.9 trillion hryvnias.