Life is getting more expensive: the government predicts a dollar of 51 and a salary increase of up to 11 thousand+

The Government of Ukraine has published the Budget Declaration for 2027–2029, which envisages two scenarios for economic development, depending on the course of hostilities: the end of the war or its continuation. This is reported by government sources and people’s deputies.

In the base scenario, which assumes the end of the war, the government predicts a gradual economic recovery, a decrease in inflation and an increase in key macroeconomic indicators. In particular, in 2027, inflation may be about 8.9%, and the dollar exchange rate may be approximately 48.3 UAH.

At the same time, even under the optimistic scenario, the government assumes a gradual devaluation of the hryvnia in the medium term. It is expected that the average annual dollar exchange rate will increase from 44.4 UAH in 2026 to 50.7 UAH in 2029, and by the end of the period it may reach 51.5 UAH.

The document pays special attention to social standards. The government forecasts an increase in the minimum wage: in 2027 – by 10.4%, in 2028 – by 8.7%, in 2029 – by 7.1%. As a result, the minimum wage may exceed 11 thousand hryvnias.

A gradual increase in the subsistence minimum and a review of the remuneration system in the public sector are also envisaged, which will require significant budget expenditures.

According to the government, public finances will remain under significant strain. The budget deficit will gradually decrease in the coming years, but the need for international financing will remain critical.

Economic growth is forecast to be gradual: from 2.6% of real GDP in 2026 to 6.7% in 2029 – provided that the security situation stabilizes.

Thus, the government’s Budget Declaration captures two possible scenarios for the future — from faster economic recovery in the event of the end of the war to more restrained development in the event of its continuation.