The blockade of Black Sea ports has already pushed up grain prices in Europe

Restrictions on grain exports through Ukrainian and Russian Black Sea ports have already affected the world market. Wheat prices are rising, which benefits farmers in countries that do not depend on Black Sea routes. For Ukraine, the situation, on the contrary, creates serious problems with exports and increases logistics costs.

This is reported by UkrAgroConsult, citing independent grain market analyst InfoGrain Myroslav Marchyniak.

According to him, in Poland, food wheat delivered to ports has already risen in price by approximately PLN 100–120 per ton.

Before the problems with Black Sea logistics arose, it was sold for PLN 880–900 per ton. Currently, the price of standard food wheat is about PLN 1,000 per ton.

Growth is also observed on the European stock market. Wheat quotes on MATIF rose from 205-210 euros to around 240 euros per ton for the December contract.

The market is still reacting calmer than in 2022

According to Marczyniak, the current reaction of the grain market remains much weaker than after the start of a full-scale war in 2022.

Large importers in Africa and the Middle East have some grain reserves, as well as fairly high yields. This allows them to temporarily postpone new purchases and monitor the development of the situation.

However, if problems with supplies via the Black Sea drag on, tensions on the world market may intensify, and prices may continue to rise.

Ukraine can export only part of the required volume via alternative routes

For Ukraine, the restriction of Black Sea logistics means a significant increase in transportation costs and a reduction in export opportunities.

According to the analyst, Ukraine needs to export about 4–5 million tons of agricultural products every month.

At the same time, alternative routes under current conditions can ensure the export of approximately 1.5 million tons per month. And this figure is possible provided that the water level in the Danube improves.

Alternative routes are also overloaded

The possibilities for redirecting Ukrainian agricultural exports are limited by the situation in neighboring countries.

Romania actively exports its own harvest, which is why a significant part of its warehouse and port infrastructure is already loaded.

The Danube route suffers from low water levels. At the same time, queues and other logistical difficulties arise on routes through Poland, Hungary and Slovakia.

Thus, a long-term restriction on the operation of Black Sea ports can simultaneously maintain high grain prices in Europe and make it difficult for Ukraine to sell its own agricultural products on foreign markets.