The Kremlin threatens “systemic” strikes on Kyiv: ISW explains the real reason for the escalation

Moscow is trying to cover up the weakness of the Putin regime and failures on the front with a new wave of terror against Ukraine

The Russian Foreign Ministry has made open threats to launch a “systematic” series of strikes on Kyiv. Moscow has even called on foreign diplomats to leave the Ukrainian capital, and residents to avoid government and military facilities.

However, the Institute for the Study of War believes that such rhetoric by the Kremlin is an attempt to cover up the weakness of the Putin regime and justify future war crimes by Russia.

Analysts emphasize that the large-scale escalation and massive attacks, in particular the strike on May 24 using more than 90 missiles and 600 drones, have not only a military but also a political goal. The Kremlin is trying to divert the attention of Russian society from the failures of the spring-summer offensive, economic problems and the inability to protect its own rear from Ukrainian long-range drones.

The ISW calls the situation surrounding the May 9 parade a separate blow to Moscow’s reputation, when the Kremlin was actually forced to ask for security guarantees against the backdrop of the announced ceasefire.

According to analysts, Russia traditionally intensifies its shelling before important diplomatic events or peace talks. The main goal is to disrupt or delay the negotiation process and shift international attention from its military failures.

The Kremlin is trying to present a new wave of attacks as “retribution” for the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ strike on a college in occupied Starobilsk, where, according to Ukraine, an occupiers’ military camp was located. However, ISW emphasizes: the preparation of large-scale missile and drone attacks takes weeks, so it is technically impossible to link them to the events of recent days.

Thus, according to experts, Moscow’s information campaign is aimed primarily at softening the West’s reaction to a new wave of escalation and presenting systemic terror against Ukraine as an allegedly “symmetrical response.”