The World Bank has worsened the growth forecast for Ukraine’s economy for 2026

The World Bank has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2026 from 2% to 1.2%, citing increasing headwinds.

According to the updated forecast, the key reasons for the slowdown were significant damage to energy and industrial infrastructure, supply disruptions, labor shortages, and general economic uncertainty. Despite military spending and investment in reconstruction, they were not enough to compensate for weak results in other sectors.

The World Bank notes that the further prospects of Ukraine’s economy directly depend on the duration of hostilities and the stability of international financial support. At the same time, under favorable conditions — in particular, an end to the war and active reconstruction — growth could accelerate to 4% in 2027.

However, even in this scenario, the economy will remain under pressure from the consequences of infrastructure destruction, personnel shortages, and a high level of uncertainty.