Milk, sour cream and kefir may increase in price by 20–25%: Ukrainians warned about new prices

In Ukraine, by the end of 2026, short-term dairy products may increase in price by 20–25%. Consumers may notice the first stage of the price revision for milk, kefir, sour cream and yogurts as early as October.

This forecast was made by Olena Zhupinas, Deputy Director General of the Milk Producers Association.

What may increase in price the most

The most significant increase in cost is predicted for fresh dairy products:

milk;
kefir;
sour cream;
yogurts.

By the end of the year, prices for this category of products may increase by a total of 20–25%.

At the same time, cheese and butter are forecast to increase in price more slowly.

Generators increase the cost of milk

One of the main reasons for the possible price increase is called problems with energy supply.

For the continuous operation of milking equipment, milk cooling and ventilation systems, farms are forced to use diesel generators.

According to the calculations of the profile association, given the cost of diesel fuel of about UAH 100 per liter, the use of autonomous power supply can increase the cost of a liter of raw milk by approximately UAH 3–3.5.

Processors and logistics companies also bear an additional burden.

Milk production has decreased

Over the first eight months of 2026, total milk production in Ukraine decreased by more than 12%.

The largest drop was recorded in private households – by approximately 27%.

At the same time, professional dairy farms, on the contrary, increased production by approximately 4%.

For industrial processing, the situation is not yet critical: about 95% of dairy raw materials for enterprises are provided by professional farms.

Shelling complicates logistics

The cost of products is also affected by the consequences of Russian attacks on logistics infrastructure and warehouses.

To avoid shortages, companies are changing routes and switching to direct deliveries of products to retail outlets. At the same time, some manufacturers may temporarily reduce their assortment due to logistical problems.

Another problem is the debt of retail chains to processors. Delays in payments create a chain reaction: factories later settle accounts with farmers who need money for fuel, feed, electricity, and salaries every day.

Can prices fall again

It is expected that the price increase will occur gradually, in several stages.

If Ukrainians start buying less dairy products due to the new prices, manufacturers and retail chains will likely rely not on the return of the old base prices, but on promotions and special offers.

Thus, the most noticeable price increase by the end of the year may be in products of daily consumption with a short shelf life – milk, kefir, sour cream, and yogurts.