Fuel for 100 hryvnias: economist Ivan Us explained what is happening with prices at gas stations

At some Ukrainian gas stations, the cost of fuel has already crossed the 100 hryvnia per liter mark. Economist Ivan Us believes that the current price increase is explained not only by world oil prices and the consequences of Russian attacks on fuel infrastructure. In his opinion, the state should check the reasonableness of prices.

One of the factors behind the fuel price increase is another increase in world oil prices. At the same time, Ivan Us draws attention: the current situation on the world market does not fully explain what Ukrainians see on gas station shelves.

“Now the price is a little higher than $100 per barrel. In March of this year, it was $119 per barrel. That is, now it is lower than it was in March, and the prices in our gas station networks are higher. And this actually gives a certain feeling that there is some kind of fraud by the gas station owners,” Ivan Us noted.

Attacks on gas stations can increase fuel prices

Another reason is Russian attacks on Ukrainian fuel infrastructure. Damage to gas stations and other property creates additional losses for companies.

“The owners of these networks want to compensate for the losses caused by Russia by raising fuel prices throughout Ukraine,” the economist explained.

However, in his opinion, transferring such costs directly to the Ukrainian consumer is not the best mechanism.

Us proposes to record damage to gas stations and other businesses in the Register of Damages, assess the value of destroyed property and create a mechanism for financial compensation for affected enterprises.

“We need to see which gas stations were damaged, what is the value of the damaged property. The property should be entered into this register of losses. To issue securities for this, to ask our European partners for money under the securities so that they give to support the businesses that have suffered,” Us believes.

At the same time, the economist proposes to tie the future lifting of sanctions on Russia to full compensation for the losses inflicted on Ukraine.

“Russia must clearly understand that every blow they make every day on the territory of Ukraine, on every gas station, will have to be paid for,” he emphasized.

How fuel at 100 hryvnias will affect product prices

The increase in fuel prices at gas stations will gradually affect the cost of goods, as the costs of transporting them increase.

“The increase in fuel costs means that in order to deliver goods from point A to point B — to the store — the cost of all this increases, and the price is passed on to the consumer. What is transported by road, and these are practically all goods, will all have an additional increase in price,” Ivan Us explained.

At the same time, this does not mean that all products will automatically become more expensive in the same way. Competition, seasonality, and the quantity of goods on the market will play an important role.

As an example, the economist cited the situation with watermelons. Despite the strikes on warehouses and the increase in fuel prices, their price did not increase during the season, but on the contrary, decreased due to a significant supply.

“Where the supply is greater, the probability of a price increase will be minimal. If the supply is large, then the desire to compete by lowering the price will remain,” the expert noted.

Will Ukrainians see fuel at 110–120 hryvnias

According to Ivan Us, the situation in winter will largely depend on how much Ukraine will be able to ensure stable fuel supplies from Europe.

“If we manage to build the logistics of fuel supplies from Europe so that it is uninterrupted, the price will increase, but there will be no crazy growth. It can stabilize at approximately the average European level, perhaps even with a certain markup,” the economist predicts.

At the same time, a much more dangerous scenario for the Ukrainian economy may not be a high price, but a fuel shortage.

“A situation where prices are low but there is no fuel is perhaps even more dangerous for the economy,” Us emphasized.

Therefore, the main task is to ensure a sufficient supply of fuel on the domestic market.

Should the state intervene

Ivan Us believes that the state should demand from gas station chains an explanation of the reasons for the sharp increase in prices.

The Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine should play a special role in this issue.

“The Antimonopoly Committee should intervene. This is a very sensitive issue for the state — the cost of fuel and its availability. If companies justify this increase, there are no complaints against them. But first, it must be justified, explaining why this price is so,” the economist said.

At the same time, Us warns against direct administrative price restrictions. If businesses are forced to sell fuel cheaper than the economically justified level, the result may be a shortage.

“When something is more expensive, but you can find it, then if you really need it, you will buy it. But if it is inexpensive, but you cannot get it, then there will be problems in the functioning of the economy,” he explained.

According to Ivan Us, the optimal solution should be a dialogue between the state and the fuel business: companies should explain the reasons for the price increase, and the authorities should look for ways to reduce the pressure on business and at the same time prevent an unreasonable increase in prices for Ukrainians.

“The state needs to intervene so that the state